Visn. Nac. Akad. Nauk Ukr. 2016. (1): 57-68
https://doi.org/10.15407/visn2016.01.057

M.Z. Zgurovsky 
Institute for Applied Systems Analysis MES of Ukraine and NAS of Ukraine, Kyiv

TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT OF UKRAINIAN ECONOMY IN THE MEDIUM (UP TO 2020) AND LONG TERM (UNTIL 2030) HORIZONS
According to the materials of the scientific report at the meeting of the Presidium of NAS of Ukraine November 4, 2015

Abstract:
The methodology and complex of actions on technology foresight of the future economy of Ukraine in the medium-term (2015–2020) and long term (2020–2030) time horizons are presented. Using the Delphi method the main clusters of the new economy of Ukraine are identified, which can ensure the successful integration of the country into the international labor cooperation on specified time horizons. Applying the methodology of scenario planning and the SWOT-analysis the group of scenarios of the future of Ukraine’s economy was developed until 2030. These scenarios can be used by decision makers at the state, civil society and international organizations to develop the policies and structural plans for socio-economic devel-opment of Ukraine in the medium and long terms.
Keywords: scenario planning, SWOT-analysis, Delphi method, foresight of Ukraine’s economy, method of two axes, method of branches.

 

Language of article: ukrainian

REFERENCES

1.   Foresight of Economy of Ukraine: Mid-Term (2015–2020) and Long-Term (2020–2030) Time Horizons. (Kyiv: NTUU KPI, 2015). http://wdc.org.ua/sites/default/files/WDC-IASA-FORSIGHT-UA_0.pdf. [in Ukrainian].
2.   Zgurovsky M.Z. System methodology of foresight. (Kyiv: Politekhnika, 2001). [in Ukrainian].
3.   Zgurovsky M.Z. Foresight of Economy of Ukraine for Mid-Term (2015–2020) and Long-Term (2020–2030) Time Horizons. Part 1. (Kyiv: NTUU KPI, 2015). [in Ukrainian].
4.   Zgurovsky M.Z., Gvishiani A.D. Sustainable development global simulation regarding quality and security of people life. http://wdc.org.ua/sites/default/files/sd2008-full-ru.pdf